What Really Happened During the Massive SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave in China?

This Viewpoint discusses reports from China after its zero COVID-19 policy ended in December 2022.

Excess death estimates from multiverse analysis in 2009-2021.

Excess death estimates have great value in public health, but they can be sensitive to analytical choices. Here we propose a multiverse analysis approach that considers all possible different time periods for defining the reference baseline and a range of 1 to 4 years for the projected time period for which excess deaths are calculated. We used data from the Human Mortality Database on 33 countries with detailed age-stratified death information on an annual basis during the period 2009-2021. The use of different time periods for reference baseline led to large variability in the absolute magnitude of the exact excess death estimates. However, the relative ranking of different countries compared to others for specific years remained largely unaltered. The relative ranking of different years for the specific country was also largely independent of baseline. Averaging across all possible analyses, distinct time patterns were discerned across different countries. Countries had declines between 2009 and 2019, but the steepness of the decline varied markedly. There were also large differences across countries on whether the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020-2021 resulted in an increase of excess deaths and by how much. Consideration of longer projected time windows resulted in substantial shrinking of the excess deaths in many, but not all countries. Multiverse analysis of excess deaths over long periods of interest can offer an approach that better accounts for the uncertainty in estimating expected mortality patterns, comparative mortality trends across different countries, and the nature of observed mortality peaks.

Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations.

Several teams have been publishing global estimates of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we examine potential flaws and underappreciated sources of uncertainty in global excess death calculations. Adjusting for changing population age structure is essential. Otherwise, excess deaths are markedly overestimated in countries with increasingly aging populations. Adjusting for changes in other high-risk indicators, such as residence in long-term facilities, may also make a difference. Death registration is highly incomplete in most countries; completeness corrections should allow for substantial uncertainty and consider that completeness may have changed during pandemic years. Excess death estimates have high sensitivity to modelling choice. Therefore different options should be considered and the full range of results should be shown for different choices of pre-pandemic reference periods and imposed models. Any post-modelling corrections in specific countries should be guided by pre-specified rules. Modelling of all-cause mortality (ACM) in countries that have ACM data and extrapolating these models to other countries is precarious; models may lack transportability. Existing global excess death estimates underestimate the overall uncertainty that is multiplicative across diverse sources of uncertainty. Informative excess death estimates require risk stratification, including age groups and ethnic/racial strata. Data to-date suggest a death deficit among children during the pandemic and marked socioeconomic differences in deaths, widening inequalities. Finally, causal explanations require great caution in disentangling SARS-CoV-2 deaths, indirect pandemic effects and effects from measures taken. We conclude that excess deaths have many uncertainties, but globally deaths from SARS-CoV-2 may be the minority of calculated excess deaths.

Estimates of COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China after abandoning zero COVID policy.

BACKGROUND: China witnessed a surge of Omicron infections after abandoning 'zero COVID' strategies on 7 December 2022. The authorities report very sparse deaths based on very restricted criteria, but massive deaths are speculated. METHODS: We aimed to estimate the COVID-19 fatalities in Mainland China until summer 2023 using the experiences of Hong Kong and of South Korea in 2022 as prototypes. Both these locations experienced massive Omicron waves after having had very few SARS-CoV-2 infections during 2020-2021. We estimated age-stratified infection fatality rates (IFRs) in Hong Kong and South Korea during 2022 and extrapolated to the population age structure of Mainland China. We also accounted separately for deaths of residents in long-term care facilities in both Hong Kong and South Korea. RESULTS: Infection fatality rate estimates in non-elderly strata were modestly higher in Hong Kong than South Korea and projected 987,455 and 619,549 maximal COVID-19 deaths respectively, if the entire China population were infected. Expected COVID-19 deaths in Mainland China until summer 2023 ranged from 49,962 to 691,219 assuming 25-70% of the non-elderly population being infected and variable protection of elderly (from none to three-quarter reduction in fatalities). The main analysis (45% of non-elderly population infected and fatality impact among elderly reduced by half) estimated 152,886-249,094 COVID-19 deaths until summer 2023. Large uncertainties exist regarding potential changes in dominant variant, health system strain and impact on non-COVID-19 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The most critical factor that can affect total COVID-19 fatalities in China is the extent to which the elderly can be protected.

Virus spread on a scale-free network reproduces the Gompertz growth observed in isolated COVID-19 outbreaks.

The counts of confirmed cases and deaths in isolated SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks follow the Gompertz growth function for locations of very different sizes. This lack of dependence on region size leads us to hypothesize that virus spread depends on the universal properties of the network of social interactions. We test this hypothesis by simulating the propagation of a virus on networks of different topologies or connectivities. Our main finding is that we can reproduce the Gompertz growth observed for many early outbreaks with a simple virus spread model on a scale-free network, in which nodes with many more neighbors than average are common. Nodes that have very many neighbors are infected early in the outbreak and then spread the infection very rapidly. When these nodes are no longer infectious, the remaining nodes that have most neighbors take over and continue to spread the infection. In this way, the rate of spread is fastest at the very start and slows down immediately. Geometrically we see that the "surface" of the epidemic, the number of susceptible nodes in contact with the infected nodes, starts to rapidly decrease very early in the epidemic and as soon as the larger nodes have been infected. In our simulation, the speed and impact of an outbreak depend on three parameters: the average number of contacts each node makes, the probability of being infected by a neighbor, and the probability of recovery. Intelligent interventions to reduce the impact of future outbreaks need to focus on these critical parameters in order to minimize economic and social collateral damage.

Characteristics of a COVID-19 Cohort With Large Vessel Occlusion: A Multicenter International Study.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms and outcomes in coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-associated stroke are unique from those of non-COVID-19 stroke. OBJECTIVE: To describe the efficacy and outcomes of acute revascularization of large vessel occlusion (LVO) in the setting of COVID-19 in an international cohort. METHODS: We conducted an international multicenter retrospective study of consecutively admitted patients with COVID-19 with concomitant acute LVO across 50 comprehensive stroke centers. Our control group constituted historical controls of patients presenting with LVO and receiving a mechanical thrombectomy between January 2018 and December 2020. RESULTS: The total cohort was 575 patients with acute LVO; 194 patients had COVID-19 while 381 patients did not. Patients in the COVID-19 group were younger (62.5 vs 71.2; P < .001) and lacked vascular risk factors (49, 25.3% vs 54, 14.2%; P = .001). Modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 3 revascularization was less common in the COVID-19 group (74, 39.2% vs 252, 67.2%; P < .001). Poor functional outcome at discharge (defined as modified Ranklin Scale 3-6) was more common in the COVID-19 group (150, 79.8% vs 132, 66.7%; P = .004). COVID-19 was independently associated with a lower likelihood of achieving modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 3 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.7; P < .001) and unfavorable outcomes (OR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.5; P = .002). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 was an independent predictor of incomplete revascularization and poor outcomes in patients with stroke due to LVO. Patients with COVID-19 with LVO were younger, had fewer cerebrovascular risk factors, and suffered from higher morbidity/mortality rates.

Virus spread on a scale-free network reproduces the Gompertz growth observed in isolated COVID-19 outbreaks

The counts of confirmed cases and deaths in isolated SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks follow the Gompertz growth function for locations of very different sizes. This lack of dependence on region size leads us to hypothesize that virus spread depends on the universal properties of the network of social interactions. We test this hypothesis by simulating the propagation of a virus on networks of different topologies or connectivities. Our main finding is that we can reproduce the Gompertz growth observed for many early outbreaks with a simple virus spread model on a scale-free network, in which nodes with many more neighbors than average are common. Nodes that have very many neighbors are infected early in the outbreak and then spread the infection very rapidly. When these nodes are no longer infectious, the remaining nodes that have most neighbors take over and continue to spread the infection. In this way, the rate of spread is fastest at the very start and slows down immediately. Geometrically we see that the "surface" of the epidemic, the number of susceptible nodes in contact with the infected nodes, starts to rapidly decrease very early in the epidemic and as soon as the larger nodes have been infected. In our simulation, the speed and impact of an outbreak depend on three parameters: the average number of contacts each node makes, the probability of being infected by a neighbor, and the probability of recovery. Intelligent interventions to reduce the impact of future outbreaks need to focus on these critical parameters in order to minimize economic and social collateral damage.

International controlled study of revascularization and outcomes following COVID-positive mechanical thrombectomy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies suggest that mechanisms and outcomes in patients with COVID-19-associated stroke differ from those in patients with non-COVID-19-associated strokes, but there is limited comparative evidence focusing on these populations. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine if a significant association exists between COVID-19 status with revascularization and functional outcomes following thrombectomy for large vessel occlusion (LVO), after adjustment for potential confounding factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional, international multicenter retrospective study was conducted in consecutively admitted COVID-19 patients with concomitant acute LVO, compared to a control group without COVID-19. Data collected included age, gender, comorbidities, clinical characteristics, details of the involved vessels, procedural technique, and various outcomes. A multivariable-adjusted analysis was conducted. RESULTS: In this cohort of 697 patients with acute LVO, 302 had COVID-19 while 395 patients did not. There was a significant difference (p < 0.001) in the mean age (in years) and gender of patients, with younger patients and more males in the COVID-19 group. In terms of favorable revascularization (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [mTICI] grade 3), COVID-19 was associated with lower odds of complete revascularization (odds ratio 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.48; p < 0.001), which persisted on multivariable modeling with adjustment for other predictors (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% CI 0.12-0.77; p = 0.012). Moreover, endovascular complications, in-hospital mortality, and length of hospital stay were significantly higher among COVID-19 patients (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 was an independent predictor of incomplete revascularization and poor functional outcome in patients with stroke due to LVO. Furthermore, COVID-19 patients with LVO were more often younger and had higher morbidity/mortality rates.

Comparison of pandemic excess mortality in 2020-2021 across different empirical calculations.

Different modeling approaches can be used to calculate excess deaths for the COVID-19 pandemic period. We compared 6 calculations of excess deaths (4 previously published [3 without age-adjustment] and two new ones that we performed with and without age-adjustment) for 2020-2021. With each approach, we calculated excess deaths metrics and the ratio R of excess deaths over recorded COVID-19 deaths. The main analysis focused on 33 high-income countries with weekly deaths in the Human Mortality Database (HMD at mortality.org) and reliable death registration. Secondary analyses compared calculations for other countries, whenever available. Across the 33 high-income countries, excess deaths were 2.0-2.8 million without age-adjustment, and 1.6-2.1 million with age-adjustment with large differences across countries. In our analyses after age-adjustment, 8 of 33 countries had no overall excess deaths; there was a death deficit in children; and 0.478 million (29.7%) of the excess deaths were in people <65 years old. In countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain excess death estimates differed 2 to 4-fold between highest and lowest figures. The R values' range exceeded 0.3 in all 33 countries. In 16 of 33 countries, the range of R exceeded 1. In 25 of 33 countries some calculations suggest R > 1 (excess deaths exceeding COVID-19 deaths) while others suggest R < 1 (excess deaths smaller than COVID-19 deaths). Inferred data from 4 evaluations for 42 countries and from 3 evaluations for another 98 countries are very tenuous. Estimates of excess deaths are analysis-dependent and age-adjustment is important to consider. Excess deaths may be lower than previously calculated.

United States Medicolegal Progress and Innovation in Telemedicine in the Age of COVID-19: A Primer for Neurosurgeons.

Telemedicine has received increased attention in recent years as a potential solution to expand clinical capability and patient access to care in many fields, including neurosurgery. Although patient and physician attitudes are rapidly shifting toward greater telemedicine use in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, there remains uncertainty about telemedicine's regulatory future. Despite growing evidence of telemedicine's utility, there remain a number of significant medicolegal barriers to its mass adoption and wider implementation. Herein, we examine recent progress in state and federal regulations in the United States governing telemedicine's implementation in quality of care, finance and billing, privacy and confidentiality, risk and liability, and geography and interstate licensure, with special attention to how these concern teleneurosurgical practice. We also review contemporary topics germane to the future of teleneurosurgery, including the continued expansion of reciprocity in interstate licensure, expanded coverage for homecare services for chronic conditions, expansion of Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services reimbursements, and protections of store-and-forward technologies. Additionally, we discuss recent successes in teleneurosurgery, stroke care, and rehabilitation as models for teleneurosurgical best practices. As telemedicine technology continues to mature and its expanse grows, neurosurgeons' familiarity with its benefits, limitations, and controversies will best allow for its successful adoption in our field to maximize patient care and outcomes.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cerebrovascular disease.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes a systemic disease that affects nearly all organ systems through infection and subsequent dysregulation of the vascular endothelium. One of the most striking phenomena has been a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated coagulopathy. Given these findings, questions naturally emerged about the prothrombotic impact of COVID-19 on cerebrovascular disease and whether ischemic stroke is a clinical feature specific to COVID-19 pathophysiology. Early reports from China and several sites in the northeastern United States seemed to confirm these suspicions. Since these initial reports, many cohort studies worldwide observed decreased rates of stroke since the start of the pandemic, raising concerns for a broader impact of the pandemic on stroke treatment. In this review, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how the pandemic has affected stroke presentation, epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes to better understand the impact of COVID-19 on cerebrovascular disease. Much evidence suggests that this decline in stroke admissions stems from the global response to the virus, which has made it more difficult for patients to get to the hospital once symptoms start. However, there does not appear to be a demonstrable impact on quality metrics once patients arrive at the hospital. Despite initial concerns, there is insufficient evidence to ascribe a causal relationship specific to the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 on the cerebral vasculature. Nevertheless, when patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 present with stroke, their presentation is likely to be more severe, and they have a markedly higher rate of in-hospital mortality than patients with either acute ischemic stroke or COVID-19 alone.

Insights on cross-species transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from structural modeling.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the ongoing global pandemic that has infected more than 31 million people in more than 180 countries worldwide. Like other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have been transmitted to humans from wild animals. Given the scale and widespread geographical distribution of the current pandemic and confirmed cases of cross-species transmission, the question of the extent to which this transmission is possible emerges, as well as what molecular features distinguish susceptible from non-susceptible animal species. Here, we investigated the structural properties of several ACE2 orthologs bound to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We found that species known not to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection have non-conservative mutations in several ACE2 amino acid residues that disrupt key polar and charged contacts with the viral spike protein. Our models also allow us to predict affinity-enhancing mutations that could be used to design ACE2 variants for therapeutic purposes. Finally, our study provides a blueprint for modeling viral-host protein interactions and highlights several important considerations when designing these computational studies and analyzing their results.

Early Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Neurosurgical Training in the United States: A Case Volume Analysis of 8 Programs.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on operative case volume in 8 U.S. neurosurgical residency training programs in early 2020 and to survey these programs regarding training activities during this period. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted of monthly operative case volumes and types for 8 residency programs for 2019 and January through April 2020. Cases were grouped as elective cranial, elective spine, and nonelective emergent cases. Programs were surveyed regarding residents' perceptions of the impact of COVID-19 on surgical training, didactics, and research participation. Data were analyzed for individual programs and pooled across programs. RESULTS: Across programs, the 2019 monthly mean ± SD case volume was 211 ± 82; 2020 mean ± SD case volumes for January, February, March, and April were 228 ± 93, 214 ± 84, 180 ± 73, and 107 ± 45. Compared with 2019, March and April 2020 mean cases declined 15% (P = 0.003) and 49% (P = 0.002), respectively. COVID-19 affected surgical case volume for all programs; 75% reported didactics negatively affected, and 90% reported COVID-19 resulted in increased research time. Several neurosurgery residents required COVID-19 testing; however, to our knowledge, only 1 resident from the participating programs tested positive. CONCLUSIONS: This study documents a significant reduction in operative volume in 8 neurosurgery residency training programs in early 2020. During this time, neurosurgery residents engaged in online didactics and research-related activities, reporting increased research productivity. Residency programs should collect data to determine the educational impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on residents' operative case volumes, identify deficiencies, and develop plans to mitigate any effects.

International experience of mechanical thrombectomy during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from STAR and ENRG.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many centers altered stroke triage protocols for the protection of their providers. However, the effect of workflow changes on stroke patients receiving mechanical thrombectomy (MT) has not been systematically studied. METHODS: A prospective international study was launched at the initiation of the COVID-19 pandemic. All included centers participated in the Stroke Thrombectomy and Aneurysm Registry (STAR) and Endovascular Neurosurgery Research Group (ENRG). Data was collected during the peak months of the COVID-19 surge at each site. Collected data included patient and disease characteristics. A generalized linear model with logit link function was used to estimate the effect of general anesthesia (GA) on in-hospital mortality and discharge outcome controlling for confounders. RESULTS: 458 patients and 28 centers were included from North America, South America, and Europe. Five centers were in high-COVID burden counties (HCC) in which 9/104 (8.7%) of patients were positive for COVID-19 compared with 4/354 (1.1%) in low-COVID burden counties (LCC) (P<0.001). 241 patients underwent pre-procedure GA. Compared with patients treated awake, GA patients had longer door to reperfusion time (138 vs 100 min, P=<0.001). On multivariate analysis, GA was associated with higher probability of in-hospital mortality (RR 1.871, P=0.029) and lower probability of functional independence at discharge (RR 0.53, P=0.015). CONCLUSION: We observed a low rate of COVID-19 infection among stroke patients undergoing MT in LCC. Overall, more than half of the patients underwent intubation prior to MT, leading to prolonged door to reperfusion time, higher in-hospital mortality, and lower likelihood of functional independence at discharge.

Delayed presentation of acute ischemic strokes during the COVID-19 crisis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted established care paths worldwide. Patient awareness of the pandemic and executive limitations imposed on public life have changed the perception of when to seek care for acute conditions in some cases. We sought to study whether there is a delay in presentation for acute ischemic stroke patients in the first month of the pandemic in the US. METHODS: The interval between last-known-well (LKW) time and presentation of 710 consecutive patients presenting with acute ischemic strokes to 12 stroke centers across the US were extracted from a prospectively maintained quality database. We analyzed the timing and severity of the presentation in the baseline period from February to March 2019 and compared results with the timeframe of February and March 2020. RESULTS: There were 320 patients in the 2-month baseline period in 2019, there was a marked decrease in patients from February to March of 2020 (227 patients in February, and 163 patients in March). There was no difference in the severity of the presentation between groups and no difference in age between the baseline and the COVID period. The mean interval from LKW to the presentation was significantly longer in the COVID period (603±1035 min) compared with the baseline period (442±435 min, P<0.02). CONCLUSION: We present data supporting an association between public awareness and limitations imposed on public life during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US and a delay in presentation for acute ischemic stroke patients to a stroke center.